Category: Free Horse Racing Tip

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Here’s today’s selection

3:20 Leicester – Costly Diamond

Only the four go to post for this mares contest, and Zambella has been installed a very short-priced favourite to follow up her Aintree and Doncaster wins. There can be little doubt, though, that she needs plenty of cut and in the ground, and further than two miles, to show her best form, and conditions here are not going to play to her strengths. Yes, she won this last year but that was in heavy ground, and she might find things a bit tougher than the market suggests.

In the end, her class ought to see her through, but the race for second is just as tricky to solve. Allavina won’t mind the ground but she hardly looked a natural at the chasing game on her debut at Warwick last month, and wind surgery since that run needs to have improved the situation. Maskada, for all we are fans of the yard, hasn’t totally looked in love with fences either, and she tends to need slower ground too. So although she looks outclassed here, it’s rank outsider COSTLY DIAMOND that might take home the silver medal.

Her form is all in low-grade handicaps but she loves good ground, jumps well in front, and might have a couple of her more fancied rivals in a spot of bother quite early if she puts them to the sword.

We’re getting about 10-1 for the forecast and that makes some appeal.

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Here’s today’s selection

1:40 Doncaster – Our Power – 1pt Win 11/2

Without doubt, the best race on the card is the Sky Bet Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase, which features several horses with pretensions of running at Cheltenham in March, not least top-weight Our Power. Now in the care of Sam Thomas, he bounced back to form when beating subsequent Kempton winner Jacamar at Wincanton on his latest outing.

It goes without saying that he remains well-handicapped on that form, with the pair pulling 13 lengths clear of the third.

Our Power largely jumped well at Wincanton, in contrast to how he shaped on his chase debut for Thomas, and that could be the key to him holding his form. He was rated higher than this over hurdles, and is still young enough as a seven-year-old to think he can be at least as good in this sphere, for all he had more racing over timber than most of his rivals.

Beakstown is a big danger on his best form, but he’s never lived up to high expectations over fences, and tends to finish weakly. This will be easier for him than the Paddy Power Gold Cup he contested last time, but he’s the type to travel best only to find less than expected in the closing stages, which just puts me off him.

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Here’s today’s selection

3:30 Taunton – Feodora

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2:05 Wincanton – Rikoboy 1pt Win

For all that Belle de Manech won her race well enough on St Stephen’s Day, the fomr does not look strong, the race being confined to mares.

She’ll find this tougher, and it’s possible her lack of experience might count against her.

Rikoboy is a viable alternative. He won well at Market Rasen last year, jumping well and taking to British fences easily, and then went close to following up at Musselburgh next time. Had he not fallen at Ascot on his final start, he’d have been second to Funambule Sivola, and that form looks very good now.

Having been in the frame three times in France on testing ground, any further rain will suit him, and there must be the chance, given he’s only six, that there’s some improvement to come.

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1:05 Lingfield – Mr Mac – 18/1

Porfin attempts another win for Phil McEntee in the MansionBet Proud Partners of The AWC Handicap, but he will struggle under his big weight now stepping up to a trip he doesn’t really stay.

A value alternative is MR MAC, who has needed a couple of runs after a lengthy break of late, and has won four of his 14 starts over C&D in this class of handicap.

Simon Hodgson is an excellent trainer who has a positive record with his handicappers on the all-weather, especially here, and while Mr Mac can spoil his chance with a slow start, he’s more than capable of winning this, having dropped 6lb since a close fourth over C&D in April.

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3:50 Chepstow – Enormouse – 11/1

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12.45 Hereford – Brilliant Present 1pt Win

Just one jumps meeting on Tuesday, with Hereford holding the fort.

There looks to be a very solid bet in the Watch Off The Fence On attheraces.com Conditional Jockeys’ Novices’ Handicap Hurdle which opens the card. Mojito Royale ought to run well now handicapping having been placed over C&D on his last two starts, but the one which stands out as being unexposed and sure to improve for a step up in trips now handicapping is BRILLIANT PRESENT for Nicky Henderson and Nathan Brennan.

A bumper winner at Lingfield 13 months ago, Brilliant Present is a full-sister to connections’ high-class chaser Gold Present, and as such is bred to need time and distance. She has qualified for handicaps by running over shorter, and her latest run saw her get outpaced over the minimum trip at Taunton, before staying on strongly when the race was over. She was fourth that day behind Earth Company and Gala de Corton, and with that pair both winning since, the form takes on a solid look. Back up in trip, and at a track with a stiffer finish, she ought to improve enough to defy what looks a very fair opening mark.

There is a tendency to believe that there is unlikely to be much value backing Nicky Henderson’s handicap debutants, but the reverse is true, and backing all of such runners blind over the past couple of decades would produced a profit of £2,176.80 to a tenner at SP, which is both surprising and gratifying, as is henderson’s 40% strike-rate at the track.

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12:50 Southwell – Ahead Of The Field

Emma Lavelle’s AHEAD OF THE FIELD (12:50 Southwell) stands out on pedigree and profile, and given he’s produced two wins and a second in four runs under rules to date, he’s done well to have achieved a BHA rating of just 118.

The selection comes here off the back of a win in a similar contest here last month, and while he looked a rather awkward ride as he flashed his tail on the run-in, the bottom line is that he won well enough from a well-handicapped rival, and while the placed horses haven’t had a chance to test the form, fifth-placed Docpickedme won a handicap chase at Uttoxeter a couple of days ago, which underlines the depth of the form.

Ahead of The Field was well held the only time he’s tried this trip, but he was much improved for the fitting of a tongue tie last time.

That suggests breathing was the problem for that flop, rather than a lack of stamina, and he is expected to get the job done, whether or not his tail is going round like a helicopter.

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2:10 Musselburgh – Mick Maestro

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12:00 Warwick – Paschals Dream