Category: Free Horse Racing Tip

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Here’s today’s selection

1:15 Kempton – Thomas Equinas

Monday sees no jumps action in Britain after a bumper weekend bolstered by ARC’s Winter Million initiative at Lingfield, which seemed to go down very well, although a grandstand finish to the feature race was marred by the fatal fall of Master Tommytucker.

It was a memorable weekend, all told, but it’s back to the mundanity of three all-weather meetings, which is a bit of a shift, mentally.

The Kempton card opens with the Unibet Horserace Betting Operator Of The Year Handicap, in which the Richard Hannon-trained Exceling immediately jumps off the page, being a dual C&D winner who has the speed to make the most of the inside berth.

He’s respected, but I am keen to side with potential improver THOMAS EQUINAS now that this well-bred sort drops to a sprint trip for the first time. He’s shown bright speed in three starts over 7f to date, and connections have used a similar ploy for their handicappers in the past.

Thomas Equinas’s half-sister Hot Chesnut qualified for handicaps over 7f before improving for the drop to 6f in her first two handicaps, beaten narrowly each time, while owners Michael and Heather Yarrow won a dozen sprints, including the Stewards’ Cup, with Lancelot du Lac, but he did all his early racing over 7f.

Many trainers attempt to keep their charges ahead of the handicapper by racing over trips which are too short, but the system works just as well in reverse, and I have no doubt that Thomas Equinas will be better as a sprinter having failed to last home so far.

He can race freely, and the faster pace sprints are run at will help him settle, and he ought to prove well in advance of the form he’s shown to date now given a better chance to express his talent.

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Here’s today’s selection

2:20 Ascot – Empressive Lady

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Here’s today’s selection

2:05 Market Rasen – Keep The Faith

There are a couple of juveniles of interest in the Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap Hurdle, and at the prices, I’m prepared to have a stab at Keep The Faith who represents the shrewd team of Mick and David Easterby. Angels Landing is the other 4-y-o, and the Ian Williams-trained filly has very obvious claims, as indicated by her place at the head of the market.

Keep The Faith makes less appeal on what he’s achieved over timber, but he was clueless on debut, swerving and unseating his rider, so has gained a mark for just two runs, neither of which showed him in his best light. An indication of his chance here is that if he met Astroman on the Flat, he would receive just 4lb in a handicap, but he gets a full two stone here on the back of a couple of potentially misleading runs.

Whilst it is undeniable that Astroman has achieved more over hurdles at this point, getting raised a pound for his Fakenham third looks a miserly thing for the handicapper to do, given the form hasn’t worked out at all. Keep The Faith has always looked a handicap project and the fact that he’s getting a 13lb weight-for-age allowance he’s not entitled to on the Flat is clearly an angle worth working, for all it applies to Angels Landing as well.

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Here’s today’s selection

2:30 Ludlow – Not A Role Model

I would like to think that this, the Billy Preston Handicap, is in honour of the only musician that wasn’t actually a Beatle to get a credit on any of their singles (Get Back, Popmaster fans) but I suspect not.

For all there’s a Venetia runner coming back off an absence, normally enough to make us reach for the back button, Gardefort is 13 now and doesn’t really fit the usual pattern of one of hers. The form is there and this trip rather than further probably suits him best, but all the same, it’s NOT A ROLE MODEL that’s the one we want to be with today.

He ran poorly at Fakenham last time out, his normally solid jumping not in evidence but he was held up behind horses there and he’s best when ridden prominently and given space at his fences, as was the case at Chepstow the time before when second in a very competitive handicap that’s worked out well.

For all he jumps a bit left, he’s fine on right-handed tracks, as wins at both Kempton and Wincanton show, and with the ground in his favour, we can see him bouncing back to form.

Topofthecotswolds might be the danger, especially if they do go a little quick up front, as he looks the one that would benefit from a pace collapse.

A little out of his depth in the Racing Post Chase last time, his second to the improving Palmers Hill at Wetherby earlier in the year is a solid effort and would give him every chance here.

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Here’s today’s selection

2:25 Newbury – Ar Mest

The Newbury card on Wednesday ought to be informative, and it provides the best of the betting opportunities on the day too. The novice races make little punting appeal, but the Book The Lodge Hotel At Newbury Racecourse Handicap Hurdle looks a race to get involved in. The first thing to note is that there is a great deal of early pace on show, and that means the race should be set up for a strong stayer.

The horse who catches my eye at a big price is the once useful AR MEST, who has dropped 6lb below last season’s most recent winning mark. He’s had two runs on unsuitably quick ground for Jack (Ralph) Smith, and although he hasn’t changed stables as such, is now under the care of Harriet Brown, who has taken over Syd Hosie’s horses in Dorset.

Harriet hasn’t had much time to get her feet under the table, but she produced Trump Lady to win easily at 40/1 in the Hosie colours at Exeter on Tuesday, and I think the yard’s horses are now worth following after a period of upheaval. Ar Mest has a record over jumps on good or good to soft ground below Class 2 level of 311U31, and kept away from extremes of going is still a decent tool. He will get this race run to suit, and if he’s back to his recent best after a short spell on the sidelines, he can go well at a big price.

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2:40 Exeter – Gastara

Exeter is the meeting of choice on Tuesday, with proper jumping ground and big fields the order of the day. A quick glance at the stats means that the Every Race Live On RacingTV Handicap Hurdle is a race I’m more than willing to play, with a significant negative at the top of the market, and a positive for one at a much bigger price.

Favourite for this handicap hurdle is Seventeen O Four, a winner last time for David Pipe, and a seemingly obvious one to follow up. We were surprised to find, however, that Pipe has a record with handicap debutants in this sphere of just one winner from 47 runners in the past two years. That was a ‘whoa moment’ for us, if you’ll excuse the term, and while it would be foolish to side against a horse with his profile, that record means I’m in no rush to take 9/4 in a race like this.

It could be argued that Richard Hawker’s record with horses running for the first time having come from other yards is inconclusive at best, but digging deeper suggests that such horses should be followed closely. Hawker runs an interesting one here in Gastara, a horse who caught my eye more than once when trained last season by the disgraced Johnny Farrelly. Hawker has had two winners from 14 runners running for the first time since switching yards, giving punters a profit of £315 to a tenner at SP. That is encouraging, but it’s even more striking when you consider that of those 14 runners, half of them were no-hopers sent off at a Betfair SP of 100 or more.

Of seven runners starting at 40/1 or shorter, Hawker has produced two winners (40/1 and 7/2) a runner-up at 22/1 and a third at 12/1. That makes his record look less of a coincidence and more the sign of a shrewd operator, and given the promise Gastara showed for Farrelly in 2020/21, I reckon Gastara ought to be a fraction of his overnight odds of 12/1.

Dai Burchell is set to retire after a career in racing which began in 1961. Dai sends GOOD IMPRESSION on the long journey from Briery Hill to Norfolk for a poor handicap hurdle, and while he’s 2lb out of the weights, he looks fairly handicapped on his hurdles form.

Good Impression (1310 Fak, Gen 11/2)

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1:50 Warwick – Mossy Fen

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1:00 Huntingdon – Adherence

ADHERENCE has his first start for him after leaving Tim Vaughan today, and connections similarly moved Akkapenko last year, with Dai almost winning with him first time out, the horse being well supported and going off favourite. Adherence’s issue has been his jumping, but that’s less of a worry back over hurdles and the booking of Ellis Collier is an interesting one. He doesn’t win many but one of his four wins came after a year off, so the 280-day absence becomes less of an issue, and he’s now very well handicapped. Dai’s also got one entered up at Fakenham on Monday, his first runner there since 2016, as far as we can tell, so he’s travelling far and wide in search of a winner to go out on a high note.

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2:40 Catterick – Supreme Escape

Neither Catterick not Bangor provide much in the way of betting fodder on Thursday, but the former does host the Vickers.Bet North Yorkshire Grand National, and to paraphrase the first letter of St Peter, love [of a marathon chase] covers a multitude of sins.

The runner which has particularly caught my eye in the big race is the Evan Williams-trained SUPREME ESCAPE, accepting that he’s not lived up to expectations thus far over fences. The run which is key to him is an excellent victory over this trip at Chepstow last March under James Bowen. That race has thrown up several subsequent winners, with the runner-up scoring off the same mark recently, and fourth-placed I See You Well winning two staying handicap chases since that run. The selection has not come close to repeating that since, but there are a number of factors which could see him back to form.

Supreme Escape was perhaps out of his depth in the Bet365 Gold Cup on his next start, and was unfancied when well held over hurdles on his return from a break at Aintree in the autumn. He was out of the handicap for both those races, as he was behind Welsh National winner Iwilldoit last time, and this represents a significant drop in class. James Bowen is back on board, and the gelding is tried in severe headgear for the first time. That looks a good move, as he can come off the bridle early in his races, while Williams has a decent record with his chasers when utilising a visor.

Evan Williams showed he had his horses in good fettle with the win in the veterans’ final at Sandown of Prime Venture last weekend – that horse another who had been running poorly until headgear was refitted there. The yard is rarely represented at Catterick, but has had a couple of winners and as many places from just ten runners there since 2017/18. Better still is the stable’s record in chases beyond 2m when James Bowen rides, with form figures in the past two years of 111211 including two wins on this horse.