Free Horse Racing Tip – Page 15

Free Tip – Indemnify appears to be under the radar.

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8:12 Sandown – Indemnify

The unexposed pair of Yaanaas and Assessment take up a fair chunk of the market here and it leaves room for an each-way bet against the pair, particularly with the extra place on offer.

Helm Rock was just behind Yaanaas at Ascot last time out, and is 1lb better off for the neck that separated the pair at the winning line. That suggests they have the same chance here, and that Yaanaas is probably too skinny at the early odds.

Helm Rock has the benefit of William Buick, and is very much respected if able to lead from the inside stall, but at a bigger price, there is some upside to INDEMNIFY, who is the least exposed in the field and who has a decent chance if ignoring his final run last year, when going as if amiss at Hamilton.

He was made favourite to beat recent York winner Marhaba The Champ that day, which is worth noting, while his earlier form has worked out well enough to suggest that a mark of 87 is far from severe.

Roger Varian’s record with his returning handicappers is excellent with around 26% of those coming off a break of 60+ days successful, and Indemnify appears to have gone under the radar.

Free Tip – Troed Y Melin

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3:20 Warwick – Troed Y Melin

Free Tip – All Dunn

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2:53 Brighton – All Dunn

Free Tip – A good opportunity for Kingson

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5:15 Carlisle – Kingson

Most appealing bet on the Flat on Monday comes at Carlisle, where KINGSON can spring a shock. Jake Coulson’s gelding is a streaky performer, and would appear to have little chance here based on his execrable efforts on Tapeta early in the year. I’m hoping that he’s been sweetened up by a 100-day break, however, and there is evidence that it may well do the trick, as he won after 205 days off in June 2021 at Beverley having previously been well beaten at Wolverhampton, and he had a run of six races on the all-weather prior to that break where he finished no closer than tenth.

Kingson was a winner on his first start for Jake Coulson, again on fast turf at Haydock, and while he’s wildly inconsistent at times, he’s got an excellent record when the word ‘firm’ appears in the going description, with form figures in the last two years reading 1311. There are very few fast-ground horses in this contest, and with warm temperatures and ground already described as good to firm in places, this looks a good opportunity for Kingson to get back on track.

Free Tip – Triple Time

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3:35 Newbury – Triple Time

Free Tip – Dorothy Lawrence is bred to relish fast turf

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1:50 York – Dorothy Lawrence

DOROTHY LAWRENCE appears to have little chance of beating Persian Dreamer given the Amo Racing filly was 3¼ lengths too good for her at Newmarket, but the winner was helped by finding cover at a meeting where the front runners tended to flounder, and more importantly, Dorothy Lawrence is bred to relish fast turf, whereas that must be a concern for the favourite, who is a daughter of the fragile Calyx, who saw his career twice interrupted by injuries sustained on quick ground. The offspring of Calyx have done well so far, but his winners have come on ground softer than good as a rule, and I’d be surprised if many of them really relished hearing their hooves rattle.

That’s certainly not the case on breeding for Dorothy Lawrence, who is by a fast ground performer in Soldier’s Call and a half-sister to Festive Star, who gained three of her four wins on ground described as firm. Hopefully there will be no rain, and with the straight track riding fast on Wednesday and Thursday, the different conditions may allow the speedy Dorothy Lawrence to reverse Newmarket form.

Free Tip – The Foxes

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3:35 York – The Foxes

Free Tip – Midnight Mile

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3:35 York – Midnight Mile

Free Tip – Rhubarb

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2:40 Chepstow – Rhubarb

Free Tip – Laakhof is well drawn.

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2:50 Catterick – Laakhof

Declan Carroll has done well with the horses he has picked up from Dermot Weld in recent years, with Emiyn, Natchez Trace and Motahassen all winning races multiple times for the Malton stable, and proving profitable for punters who have backed them blind, so it’s interesting that Carroll sends out another ex-Weld runner in the shape of LAAKHOF in a low-grade sprint handicap here.

Laakhof was disappointing last season after a promising handicap debut, but it’s worth noting that Weld had a poor time of things last year by his high standards, and the BHA handicapper has given the son of Profitable a real chance with an opening British mark of 50, which is 11lb lower than the mark he gained in Ireland, and 8lb lower than when beaten at the Curragh in August when last seen.

He starts out in very modest company and is well drawn in stall nine, so ought to go well if ready to go.

The fitting of a tongue tie could be viewed as a negative, but also offers a reason why he wasn’t firing in 2022, and it does suggest he’s expected to be fit enough.