Author: Steve

Free Tip – Golden Cue gets one more chance

Today’s free tip is below.

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Here’s today’s selection

5:15 Chepstow – The Golden Cue – Each Way

Across the Welsh border (I’m getting flashbacks of the Two Ronnies’ The Worm That Turned), I’m not ashamed to admit that I’m giving one more chance to THE GOLDEN CUE, who needs a deep surface, and gets that for the first time in ages in the Cwmbran Carpet Centre Quality Service Handicap.

Steph Hollinshead’s seven-year-old is far from consistent, but has missed a couple of engagements this term due to ground faster than ideal, and then clearly needed the outing at Thirsk last time.

He ran really well on his last visit here, where he would have won at this trip, and while he will always come with risks, his ability to cope with track and ground are big positives, and he should not be the outsider of the field.

Free Tip – Will Tyger keep the rest at Bay?

Today’s free tip is below.

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Here’s today’s selection

1.50 Donc – Tyger Bay

Free Tip – Earlofthecotswolds will relish the rain

Today’s free tip is below.

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Here’s today’s selection

3:40 Goodwood – Earlofthecotswolds

There were heavy thunderstorms in many places on Monday evening, and more rain forecast for much of the UK on Tuesday, so I’m wary of trusting going reports suggesting good or quicker ground. I’d be fairly confident that Goodwood’s turf will be soft given it was last weekend, and they have not been spared since, so I’ve headed there for the best bet.

I don’t think Earlofthecotswolds is leniently treated by the handicapper, but he will relish the rain-softened ground at Goodwood, and is totally unexposed under such conditions on the Flat. He didn’t really take to fences, but his record on ground softer than good at up to 2½m over hurdles reads well with four wins in five runs, and he has been a revelation on the all-weather since belatedly switched to the summer game, winning the All-weather Marathon Final on Good Friday at Newcastle.

Earlofthecotswolds is an outsider here, and appears to have a tough task conceding lumps of weight to Gary Moore’s Aggagio at first glance. If this was a hurdle race, the handicapper would expect him to concede two stone to that rival, however, and I’m not sure the task is as onerous as it first seems. Thrown in the fact that Gary Moore is producing winners at a rate of 4% in the past eight weeks compared to 38% for Nigel Twiston-Davies, and his prospects look pretty healthy.

In terms of stable form, I’d also have concerns over Emma Lavelle, whose last six runners have beaten just three rivals in total, and also Hughie Morrison, who has sent out one winner and one placed horse from 17 runners in the past fortnight. Themaxwecan needs quick ground, and the frustrating Morando has his conditions, but has won just once in the past three years.

Free Tip – Basholo looks a big price.

Today’s free tip is below.

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Here’s today’s selection

8:30 Newcastle – Basholo – Each Way

In the final race of the evening, I considered putting up course specialist Another Angel, but while Antony Brittain’s gelding has a big chance on his best course form, he has a pretty moderate record after a break (978729 after a break of 8 weeks or more), and preference is for the Stella Barclay-trained BASHOLO, who looks a big price on the back of a forgivable effort on soft ground at Hamilton.

Basholo showed immediate improvement for the switch to Barclay from Brian Meehan, finishing third at Carlisle when was produced to lead two furlongs out and gave the impression the stiff finish found here out. She built on that when dropped to 5f at Leicester on her next start, scoring bravely in a three-way finish despite being carried left by the runner-up. She was probably unsuited by conditions after a break at Hamilton on her latest start, but being restrained leaving the stalls sealed her fate and that is a run to ignore in the grand scheme.

She is yet to race at Newcastle – or on Tapeta for that matter – but as a daughter of Caravaggio, she is bred to relish the surface. To demonstrate, Caravaggio’s offspring have a record of just 8-99 on ground softer than good in the UK and Ireland, but his record on Tapeta is 7-36 on Tapeta.

She may still be open to improvement given her profile, and following Stella Barclay at Newcastle is a profitable ploy, with the yard’s runners winning almost twice as often as the market would suggest.

Free Tip – The Attorney can reward each way support

Today’s free tip is below.

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Here’s today’s selection

3:10 Ascot – The Attorney

High numbers have generally had the best of it on the straight 7f at Ascot this year, and with the pace among the high numbers again today, it’s The Attorney that makes plenty of appeal.

Given his consistency, the handicapper has been pretty lenient with him, and his overall form bears a bit more scrutiny. He tends to need a run after an absence, and doesn’t quite stay 1m, but his 7f handicap form when returned to the track within six weeks of a previous run is an impressive 43112222521. He was runner-up – beaten a neck – to subsequent Group 2 winner Jumby off 92 on his final 2021 outing, and has been beaten by no more than a length and a half since his return in some very competitive handicaps this summer, his fifth coming in the Bunbury Cup when he was once again a neck behind Jumby.

A win at Doncaster over the well-treated but frustrating Air To Air will have bolstered his confidence, and despite that tremendous consistency, he is only 4lb higher in the handicap than he was a year ago. He looks a very fair price and can reward each-way support.

Free Tip – Amor De Mi Vida is an overpriced course and distance winner.

Today’s free tip is below.

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3:38 Haydock – Amor De Mi Vida

At Haydock, my nap vote goes to AMOR DE MI VIDA whose C&D record is two wins and close third from three starts.

The third is worth revisiting, as she was attempting to concede 20lb to Sound of Iona, who was beaten in a photo at Windsor on Monday evening off a mark of 77. Amor de Mi Vida is rated 80 here, and that puts her task that day into perspective. She ran poorly last time, and can throw in the occasional poor run.

Despite her quirks, she has a record in turf handicaps at 5f of 15172383212125, and fillies with that kind of strike-rate need to be backed when conditions are in their favour. Archie Watson continues in form, with six winners from 22 runners in the past fortnight, and Amor de Mi Vida is overpriced given she threw in one of her lesser efforts last time.

Free Tip – Dubai Poet

Today’s free tip is below.

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4:15 Haydock – Dubai Poet

Free Tip – Hypernova

Today’s free tip is below.

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2:55 Gowran Park – Hypernova

Free Tip – Mark’s Choice

Today’s free tip is below.

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Here’s today’s selection

3:40 Ripon – Mark’s Choice

Free Tip – Redredrobin

Today’s free tip is below.

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Here’s today’s selection

3:31 Chepstow – Redredrobin